Now what? - San Antonio Spurs | Basketball initiates
Now what? – San Antonio Spurs | Basketball initiates
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Welcome to Basketball Insiders’ Now what? Series. If you’re not completely in the know, feel free to read some of our more recent episodes first, such as Indiana and Minnesota. Today we take a look at the San Antonio Spurs. Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Spurs missed the playoffs for the second straight season, which seems inconceivable after all they’ve accomplished.
It’s not like Spurs are consistently winning the championship year after year, but they were still in the title talk for what seemed like an eternity. Knowing that they are no longer there is mind-blowing. Granted, this great infusion of talented youngsters has eclipsed San Antonio’s disgrace, but the playoffs aren’t the same without them. So where are the Spurs if they’re not one of the titans of the NBA?
Strengths
It comes when you have DeMar DeRozan as the attacking focal point, but Spurs have been pulling free throws at a pretty excellent pace this season. They averaged 22 per game, which was good enough to place 11th overall in the league according to Basketball-Reference. Admittedly, it’s hanging on to the straws because not much about their attack was impressive this season. But this is the highlights section, so we won’t dwell on that just yet.
Another strength is that their youth is improving a bit. Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson and Lonnie Walker IV have all taken a step forward in scoring with bigger roles.
Murray
2019-20: 10.9 points per game
2020-21: 15.7
White:
2019-20: 11.3
2020-21: 15.4
Johnson:
2019-20: 9.1
2020-21: 12.8
Walker:
2019-20: 6.4
2020-21: 11.2
This was done to the detriment of the effectiveness of their field goal but, again, we are not going to dwell on the weaknesses here. Better yet, progress in all areas takes time.
Finally, of all that has gone wrong with the Kawhi trade, Jakob Poeltl has become one of the most effective rim protectors in the league. Opponents’ field goal percentage around the rim fell 11.6% when he protected the rim this year. So it made sense when they started him at five full-time against LaMarcus Aldridge.
As you can probably see, Spurs don’t have any notable strengths. Luckily for them, they don’t have any glaring weaknesses either.
Weaknesses
Although the NBA’s offenses center on all three, the Spurs still refuse to embrace it fully. According to Basketball-Reference, they placed last in all three night attempts (28.4), which has been the case in recent years. That will likely change * if * DeMar DeRozan changes teams this summer. If so, San Antonio will likely have to rely more on all three.
Sadly, the days of Davis Bertans and Danny Green are long gone. In the past, Spurs have made up for their lack of three-point attempts with incredible efficiency. No more. Of all their rotational players, only two of them shot more than 36% out of three – Patty Mills and Rudy Gay – who, like DeRozan, are best suited to play for competing teams right now.
The lack of attempts and efficiency in this department has played a major role in Spurs’ offensive ranking at No. 21 this season. If the defense held up, Spurs’ offensive problems might have been toned down a bit, but no. The San Antonio defense fell to tied for 17th in the defensive standings (112.8) according to Basketball-Reference. It’s not bad enough to be considered a weakness – it’s average – but these are such off-putting numbers for a team coached by Gregg Popovich.
Whether DeRozan stays or not, Spurs need to get more inventive to re-launch their offense.
Opportunities
San Antonio’s opportunities are limited, to say the least. Unless they shock the world with their low lottery odds, they likely won’t get an initial Special Talent.
So where does that leave them? Well, reading the tea leaves, DeMar DeRozan apparently has no interest in spending the rest of his prime with Spurs. In the grand scheme of things, this is probably what is best for both parties. All of San Antonio’s top players are 26 and under. At 31, DeRozan’s talents are probably best used in a team ready to win now.
In addition, with him gone, it gives their youngsters more space to stretch their legs. Dejounte Murray is an oversized jack-of-all-trades point guard who made NBA All-Defense his rookie year. Derrick White’s score increased once he saw an increase in minutes and usage. Lonnie Walker IV has had his promising stretches. Then there is Keldon Johnson.
Johnson was a bubble boy wonder last year. Even though he was brief, he showed a promising 3-ball, a bag of iso tricks, and an energetic defense. Many believed that maybe Spurs had another shining star among them. This played a role in giving him unfair expectations ahead. Much like other individual players this season, Johnson may have taken advantage of the bubble atmosphere enough that not taking one more step in a COVID shortcut should have been predictable.
This does not mean that its potential is no longer intriguing. Much like Murray and White, all it might take is time to reach it. If taking two steps forward requires taking a step back, why not?
Threats
Usually when writing these we are required to highlight the strengths and weaknesses of each team. In the case of San Antonio, that is precisely their problem right now. Nothing about them, good or bad, is truly remarkable. They’ve been reduced to being the NBA’s quintessential ball club. They have entered the paradox of being too good to be “bad” and too bad to be “good”.
A core of Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Lonnie Walker IV, Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl is solid to have. No one denies the raw potential of some of them. At the same time, are any of these guys planning to be anything special? For years a Kawhi guy or Duncan guy or Robinson guy led the charge on Spurs’ title hopes. At the moment, none of the players on this list have this trajectory.
What they must be wondering is how, at the very least, do they come back to owning a playoff timeshare like they have for over two decades? Unfortunately, there is no quick fix for them. They metaphorically won the lottery when they traded to Kawhi Leonard on draft night and literally won the lottery when they drafted Tim Duncan and David Robinson.
The threat to San Antonio is not the lack of talent itself. This is how they can get more.
For some, the fall of San Antonio is a welcome change of pace considering how long they were at the top. Honestly, it’s sad that their reign ended so prematurely because Kawhi wanted something else. It only got worse the following year when they sacrificed Davis Bertans to make room for Marcus Morris before Morris reneged on their deal.
They are not completely short of young talent. But when you compare one of their young players to Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum or Zion Williamson, do any of them bring the same excitement as these three? Coach Pops has performed too many miracles to count, but like any elite player he needs help.
Their options are therefore either to see how their young nucleus evolves, or to start from scratch for the first time since the eighties. They are good enough to give this young team a chance for now, but their immediate future is uncertain at Alamo.
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